Rising tides: Unveiling the spatial and temporal evolution of sea level rise under climate change

Abstract

This study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of sea level rise under climate change, employing a tri-scale quantitative framework (global, China’s coastal waters, and Shanghai municipality) to elucidate its underlying drivers and regional disparities. By synthesizing IPCC AR6 datasets and NASA sea level projection models, we integrate the Theil-Sen Median Method with Mann-Kendall Test to analyze trajectory patterns from 2030 to 2100. Spatial clustering effects are further identified through hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) implemented in ArcGIS Pro. The findings reveal a statistically significant upward trend in global sea levels, primarily attributed to thermal expans..